Cinncinnati Bearcats +3

Cinncinnati Bearcats (0-0) @ Fresno State Bulldogs (0-0)

Bulldog Stadium – Fresno , CA

09/04/2010 10:00PM – Capacity 41,031

We feel for last year’s Cincinnati squad.  Looking back and wondering “What if..” is probably a daily exercise for the Cincinnati players.  What if time runs out in the Big 12 Championship?  Maybe Cincy advances to play Alabama, Brian Kelly stays on to coaches the championship game, and they figure out a way to beat the Crimson Tide.  Maybe.

But this pick is far from sentimental.

Fresno State reminds us of Nicolas Cage (*blank stare at the monitor*). Fresno State has made 10 bowls in Pat Hill’s 14 years.  Look at it this way, besides Chris Peterson at Boise, Hill is probably the only WAC coach you’ve heard of.  The reputation has carried him and Fresno for a long time, but the truth is that Fresno hasn’t won an outright WAC title or even finished higher than 3rd in the WAC since 2003. (Please pick your jaw off the desk.)  Every time Fresno runs on the field you think you’re going to see 1996 Oscar winning actor Nicolas Cage, (Leaving Las Vegas) but you never do.  Instead you see Cage in The Family Man, Ghost Rider, and Bangkok Dangerous and you’re always disappointed.

Think about it.  When was the last time Nicolas Cage didn’t disappoint you?  (Punch yourself in the face for thinking about Wicker Man.)  Fresno State is Nicolas Cage.  The team with Ryan Mathews last year was a little bit like Lord of War when you convinced yourself it wasn’t a waste of money as you were walking out of the theatre (but it was).  That’s why you don’t bet on Cage.

Here’s why you bet on Cincy.

You bet on Cincy because of Zach Collaros, the uber-athletic heir to the Tony Pike thrown.  And we’re going to make an argument that will bottle your mind – Collaros is going to be better than Pike.  We saw it last year while he carried the team through their 3 toughest conference opponents outside of Pitt.  He busted a 75 yard run @ South Florida, completed 75% of his passes, and finished with a TD/INT of 10/2.  Not bad for a backup.

That isn’t the end of Cincy’s skill position talent.   With NFL athleticism and size (all over 6 feet tall), the Bearcat WRs look out of place playing on Saturday.  You’ve heard of the #1 Armon Binns, but you probably haven’t heard of DJ Woods, the most underrated of the three.  Then there’s Vidal Hazelton.  The USC transfer was the #1 WR in his recruiting class and is expected to put on a show for NFL scouts.  None of this information is good news for any team that struggles with pass defense. (See: Fresno State)

Last year the Bearcats faced Fresno State in Nippert Stadium.  They were 17 point favorites but didn’t cover.  This random dude Ryan Mathews (Chargers) got the ball 38 times.  Guess what?  There is no more Ryan Matthews.

Don’t let Fresno do this to you.  When your buddy (who doesn’t buy our picks) is telling you how that Fresno is a very solid team, turn to him and ask him to name one effing player on the roster.  Oh, and don’t be intimidated by Bulldog Stadium. It holds 41,000 mellowed out stoners.